From the traditional ‘around the cans’ course in Dingle Bay the 52 boat fleet will retrace its steps along the coast of Ireland to the Fastnet Rock, leaving it to starboard and embarking on the 160 mile trip across the Irish Sea. The next mark is the Wolf Rock, eight miles off the tip of Cornwall, to be left to starboard, and from there another inshore passage along the English coast right up to the Needles Fairway buoy at the entrance to the Solent. The last 80 miles takes the fleet across the English Channel to their ultimate destination, the port of Dieppe in upper Normandy.
Weather conditions look set to be just as varied and uncertain as on the previous three legs. After fighting their way into a 15 to 20 knot south-westerly wind to leave Dingle Bay, the fleet may be able to break out spinnakers for the first stretch along the coast to Mizzen Head, followed by a fast reach all the way across to the Lizard, the breeze sometimes gusting as high as 25 knots. Sea conditions here are expected to quite robust, with waves of around a metre and a half. Once into the Channel the picture becomes much less clear, but certainly calmer, as the fleet falls under the influence of a high pressure system. Two possible scenarios present themselves: the first of light winds, under 5 knots, for anywhere between 100 and 200 miles along the English Channel, the other for slightly brisker but flukier breeze from the easterly and northerly sectors. In such uncertain conditions the portion of the course at the western tip of the Isle of Wight could prove particularly difficult, where currents of up to 3 knots could have a significant effect on the boats’ progress.
Yann Elies, lying in second place overall, and only 5 minutes 59 seconds behind Nicholas Lunven, is fully aware of the big question mark, and of what is at stake: “After Wolf Rock, I don’t really know how we’re going to get to Dieppe: pushing, rowing or swimming… but I like the fact that there will be a few cards to play, some current, the chance to pull off a few strokes. In any case, it will be sudden death or glory this leg.”
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