Ahead of a forecasted breezy weekend, Met Eireann has issued a small craft warning for all coasts of Ireland valid from Thursday afternoon. 

Easterly winds, veering southwesterly in southern sea areas, will reach force six or higher, the State forecaster says.

Kinsale Yacht Club on the south coast is urging its marina berth holders to ensure boats are secure. For Friday and Saturday, the club expect very strong SE winds with gusts exceeding 50 knots.

At Dun Laoghaire Harbour on Dublin Bay, 50 mph southerly gusts are forecast for Saturday morning (April 6th) by online weather prediction modeller XC Weather, and in Cork Harbour, 60 mph gusts are shown by the same forecaster.

XC Weather

Met Éireann has indicated that last month was among the “top ten” wettest months of March on record.

Sea surface temperatures over the North Atlantic have also been at record high levels now for over a year.

As RTÉ News reports, data due to be published by Met Éireann on Wednesday (April 3) will show that some areas of the island had rainfall over 200 per cent above normal.

However, according to climatologist Paul Moore, it was not as wet as March 2023. Moore said most of the precipitation was in the south and east, and there was 145% of “long-term average rainfall.”

The difference between this March and March 2023 is that "February 2023 was a very dry month”, unlike the very wet February this year.

He said that Dublin Airport had 219% of its long-term average for March, Phoenix Park 211% and Valentia Observatory in Kerry had 193% of its long-term average.

Kerry would have had its wettest March since 1963, he noted.

Rainfall had been "above-average” since June 2023, while temperatures for March were above average and sunshine values below average.

This means there is less drying, and farmers are facing a fodder crisis.

The higher sea temperatures over the past year would contribute more moisture into the atmosphere, he noted.

Read RTÉ News here

A Met Éireann Weather Warning of very strong and gusty southwest winds and heavy rainfall has led to the early cancellation of weekend sailing fixtures in Cork Harbour and Dublin Bay.

The DMYC at Dun Laoghaire Harbour on Dublin Bay (live webcam views here) decided early on Friday afternoon to hoist 'N over A' for Sunday afternoon's Viking Marine-sponsored Frostbite dinghy racing series on Sunday. 

In Crosshaven, the planned IODA Optimists Spring Series at Royal Cork Yacht Club on Saturday has also been scrubbed.

Kinsale Yacht Club in West Cork issued a weather alert to its marina berth holders to ensure vessels are secure ahead of the strong wind arrival.

Met Éireann Weather Warning says the gusty southwest winds could cause significant coastal waves. The warning is in place for Ireland until Sunday.

This year is expected to be the warmest 12 months on record for Ireland, Met Éireann’s provisional state of the Irish climate report says.

Temperatures in 2023 beat the previous warmest year of 2022, and for the first time, Ireland’s annual average temperature is greater than 11°C (record length 124 years), it says.

2022 was the previous warmest year on record at nearly 10.9°C, narrowly beating 2007 by just 0.1°C.

Keith Lambkin, Head of Climate Services at Met Éireann said these record-breaking extremes “have knock-on consequences to much of society”.

“Past weather events are no longer a reliable indicator of future weather events, but knowing this allows us to better plan and adapt to our changing climate,” he said.

Ireland Temperature anomalies

Key points of the report are that :

• 2023 was the warmest year on record for Ireland (record length 124 years).
• For the first time, Ireland’s average annual temperature rises above 11°C.
• 2023 saw the warmest June on record.
• 2023 saw the wettest March and the wettest July on record.
• For the first time in 23 years, four months of the year were within their top 5 warmest months on record (average stays between one and two months every year since the year 2000).
• January 2023 observed the lowest temperature of the year with -7.2°C on Tuesday, 17 January, at Lullymore Nature Centre, Co Kildare.
• February 2023 was ranked 5th mildest and 6th driest February.
• March 2023 was the wettest March on record.
• April 2023 saw storm Noa brought storm force winds and waves to up 17.3 m on the Kerry and Cork coast.
• May 2023 was ranked 2nd warmest May.
• June 2023 became the warmest June on record with above 16°C average temperatures for the first time.
• July 2023 was the wettest July on record and wettest month of 2023.
• Significant flooding during storm Betty occurred in August.
• September 2023 was the 3rd warmest September with rare September heatwaves and the highest temperature of the year with 29.1°C on Friday 8th September 2023 at Lullymore Nature Centre, Co Kildare.
• October 2023 was the 2nd wettest month of year. Cork Airport recorded its highest October rainfall ever, with 222% of October’s 1981-2020 long-term average. Storm Babet caused significant flooding.
• November saw more rainfall and flooding.
• Eleven named storms during the year, and three named storms in December – Elin, Fergus and Gerrit.

Met Éireann notes that it has been over a century since the coldest March (1919), April (1922), May (1923), July (1922), August (1912), September (1918) and November (1919).

Since 2000, on average, one or two months of the year have recorded their top five warmest temperatures, it says.

“For example, in 2022, we had two months within their top 5 warmest. However, in 2023, four months reached the “top five warmest on record”: February (5th warmest), May (2nd warmest), June (warmest ever) and September (3rd warmest),” it says.

For the first time in a single year since 1941, two months observed their wettest on record, March and July, it notes.

Met Éireann has issued a Status Red wind warning for counties Clare, Galway, Roscommon, Offaly, Westmeath for Monday (13 November) with the arrival of Storm Debi.

And a Status Orange warning will be in effect on and off the East Coast from counties Wexford to Down, with a Status Yellow warning for the rest of the island of Ireland’s coastline.

Met Éireann’s weather warning states that conditions will be “extremely gusty on Sunday night and Monday due to Storm Debi with potential danger to life”.

Possible impacts include damage to exposed and vulnerable structures; disruption to services and transport; significant power outages; and fallen trees/branches.

High winds — reaching as much as violent storm Force 11 from Mizen Head to Valentia to Slyne Head — will be accompanied by heavy rain with a chance of embedded thunderstorms and hail.

In addition, a small craft warning is in effect from 11pm on Sunday (11 November) until late on Tuesday (14 November) as south-easterly winds veering south-westerly will reach Force 6 or higher.

Waterways Ireland advises masters and owners of vessels on the inland waterways not to undertake unnecessary journeys and to check mooring lines regularly throughout this period.

Waterways users are advised that jetties and quay walls may be slippery due to the heavy rainfall. Additional precautions should be taken when operating on or near water during Storm Debi.

A Met Éireann summary of climate averages over 30 years has found that Ireland's average mean hourly wind speed ranges from nine knots at Shannon Airport to 15 knots at Donegal’s Malin Head.

It’s one of a number of facts published by Met Éireann for the period 1991 to 2020, which has found an overall increase in air temperatures compared to the previous 30-year period.

The average yearly air temperature for Ireland stands at 9.8°C for 1991-2020, representing an increase of 0.7°C.

Mean temperatures are higher across the country for all seasons in the most recent 30-year period, it says, while sunshine hours have increased by about 5% when compared to the 1961-1990 period.

May is the sunniest month of the year, followed by June.

Met Éireann’s analysis also indicates an increase in rainfall of approximately 7% over the last 30 years, with annual average rainfall for Ireland at 1,288 mm (1991-2020).

Met Éireann’s analysis also indicates an increase in rainfall of approximately 7% over the last 30 years

Regional variations are also evident, with the west and north of Ireland showing the greatest increases in annual rainfall, it says.

The release of these findings by Met Éireann comes ahead of the World Meteorological Organisation's (WMO) publication of the Global Climate Averages (or “climate normals”) for 1991-2020 next month.

Mean temperatures are higher across the country for all seasons in the most recent 30-year period, says Met Eireann

Met Éireann contributes to the development of this global dataset.

Met Éireann climatologist and project lead, Mary Curley, said that “we know that the atmosphere is warming and what we’re seeing at the local and national scale fits the international picture”.

“While these averages give us an up-to-date baseline to compare our current and future weather to, it’s important to remember that weather patterns can vary significantly from year to year,” she said.

The findings in these new 30-year averages align with the results from Met Éireann’s “Translate” climate projections, released last month. These projections confirm the likelihood of a warmer and wetter climate annually for Ireland, as forecast 30 years ago.

Met Éireann says it will publish a comprehensive technical report on the 30-year averages 1991-2020 on met.ie later this year, which will provide more detailed information.

Met Éireann says that June 2023 is the hottest June on record, while the recent marine heatwave has brought extreme sea-surface temperatures to Irish shores.

Met Éireann says that provisional data shows that Ireland has experienced its first June with 16+°C average temperatures.

It says that this exceeds the previous June record, which had held for 83 years.

“June 2023 is set to be more than half a degree higher than June 1940,” Met Éireann says.

The highest temperature of 2023 so far, at 28.8°C, was reported at Oak Park in Co Carlow on Tuesday, June 13th.

It says this is the third consecutive year that a temperature at or above this value has been observed in Ireland.

“Although temperatures have fallen in recent days, they will not prevent this June’s record-breaking situation,” Met Éireann’s climatologist Paul Moore says.

“This year’s particularly warm June is part of an observed warming trend, and our research shows that this trend will continue,” Moore said.

“Our recently published TRANSLATE project provides a reminder that right across society, we need to understand and plan for a changing climate,” he said.

“An average monthly temperature of greater than 16°C has been seen in July and August but never before in June,” Moore said.

“June 2023 was well above normal due to persistent warm days and nights,” he said, and 23 of 25 Met Éireann primary weather stations have shown their warmest June on record.

“In early June, cool easterly winds on the east coast meant that Phoenix Park and Dublin Airport stations were cooler, but they still show their warmest June since 1976,” he said.

Met Éireann researcher Dr Pádraig Flattery said that “as climate change continues, we can expect further records to be broken and more frequent and extreme weather events”.

“A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture (about 7% for every 1°C of warming), and warmer waters, in turn, provide more energy for storms and can contribute to extreme rainfall events,” he said.

This June, and especially over the past two weeks, Ireland has seen nine days of intense thunderstorm activity, with heavy downpours, lightning, and at times, hail, Met Éireann said.

“While this prolonged spell of thunderstorms has not been the norm in Ireland,…..we are likely to see more of this type of weather as the climate,” it said.

The World Meteorological Organisation recently warned that Europe is warming twice as fast as other continents.

16,000 people died as a result of extreme heat last year, and widespread droughts caused significant economic impacts. The rate of June heat waves has tripled in Spain in the past 12 years. June 2023 was also the warmest June of record in Britain.

Of the top ten warmest Junes on record, half of those have occurred since 2005, that is (in order of warmest) 2023, 2018, 2010, 2006 and 2005, Met Éireann says.

It says Athenry, Co Galway and Shannon Airport, Co Clare experienced 27 consecutive days with maximum air temperatures > 20.0 °C, ending on Saturday, June 24th, 2023.

“Summer 1995 observed 36 consecutive days at various stations in Leinster, ending on Saturday 26th August 1995,” it says.

It says Newport, Co Mayo experienced five consecutive nights where air temperatures did not fall below 15.5 °C, ending on Wednesday, June 14th, 2023.

Did you know that Met Éireann calculates the weather every 2.5 kilometres, whereas the global models accessible on mobile phones are calculated every nine or every twelve kilometres?

The one exception to that is the Norwegian forecasting service, used by many Irish mariners, according to Met Éireann’s recently retired head of forecasting, Evelyn Cusack.

Met Eireann's recently retired head of forecasting, Evelyn Cusack

In an interview with Wavelengths shortly before she departed, Cusack explained the organisation's work in Glasnevin, its plans for a supercomputer, the advantages of its “app”, and the extent of its archive.

Met Eireann's recently retired head of forecasting, Evelyn Cusack with archivist Ciara Ryan

As a State service, Met Éireann doesn’t “ have a huge unit pumping millions and millions into our website or app,” she explained.

“A lot of the commercial apps look fantastic, and great – they sell their product, and that’s their job, but a lot of the commercial companies use national meteorological service data because we have an open data policy,” she said.

Met Eireann has extensive archives at its headquarters in Glasnevin, Dublin

Cusack spoke to Wavelengths, along with archivist Ciara Ryan and duty forecaster Deirdre Lowe. You can listen below

As the North Atlantic is beset by a marine “heatwave”, a new climate dataset project aims to inform adaptation to changing weather in Ireland.

The “Translate” project involving Met Éireann combines all previous climate projects “of relevance” for Ireland to “help Irish society to speak the same climate language”.

Met Éireann is releasing the first climate projections of the “Translate” initiative at the European Climate Change Adaptation Conference 2023 (ECCA) held in Dublin this week.

Initial findings confirm a warming climate signal for Ireland, with temperatures projected to increase across all greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

"summers are projected to be drier and winters to be wetter"

“The dataset confirms that Ireland is likely to experience a decrease in the frequency of cold winter nights and up to a 10-fold increase in the frequency of warm (> 15°C) summer nights, alongside an increasing number of heatwaves, by the end of the century,” it says.

As predicted in some of the first climate change reports three decades ago, summers are projected to be drier and winters to be wetter, with precipitation increasing annually.

“Translate” is described as a “stepping-stone in the development of Ireland’s National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS)”.

Coordinated by Met Éireann and partner organisations, the NFCS supports climate adaptation by providing tailored information and services on Ireland’s changing climate to the public and key stakeholders, such as the energy sector.

“Translate” climate projections will be freely accessible to the public and decision-makers around the country.

The research initiative is a collaborative effort led by climate researchers from the University of Galway – Irish Centre for High-End Computing (ICHEC) and University College Cork – SFI Research Centre for Energy, Climate and Marine (MaREI), supported by Met Éireann climatologists.

With Met Éireann issuing an advisory for hot weather through the rest of the week and the weekend, the RNLI, Irish Coast Guard and Water Safety Ireland are urging people to plan for their personal safety when visiting the coast or when they are on or near the water.

Air temperatures are set to be in the mid to high 20s, with some parts breaking 30C today (Thursday 11 August).

All three organisations are reminding people about the dangers of cold water shock, which can seriously affect breathing and movement, and can occur in any water temperature below 15C.

In a joint statement, they said: “With the good weather and high temperatures forecast to last right through to the weekend, we want to remind everyone to attend to their personal safety.

“With so many people enjoying the water this summer, it’s important that we all know the risks. The sea can be unpredictable, and even with the temperatures soaring, the fact is that the water is still relatively cool compared to air temperatures.

“Just because an area looks safe for swimming it doesn’t mean that it is safe. Only swim in areas that are protected by lifeguards or in areas with which you are familiar. In the case of lifeguard -protected beaches, only swim between the red and yellow flags.”

RNLI water safety lead Kevin Rahill said: “Many people who get into danger each year never planned to enter the water — slips, trips and falls can also occur.

“The RNLI is urging people to Float to Live if they get into trouble in the water. This means leaning back and spreading your arms and legs to stay afloat, controlling your breathing, then calling for help or swimming to safety.

“In the event of any water or coastal emergency, call 999 or 112 or use marine VHF Radio Channel 16 and ask for the coastguard.”

Roger Sweeney from Water Safety Ireland added: “Rip currents are difficult to spot but common on beaches and carry you out to sea quickly.

“If you do get caught in one, the advice is to not to exhaust yourself trying to swim against it. Rather swim parallel to the beach until free of the narrow current and then head for shore.”

Gerard O’Flynn from the Irish Coast Guard also noted: “Record numbers are also taking to the water on craft such as paddleboards and kayaks, many for the first time, so it is important to always remember to wear a lifejacket or buoyancy aid and to take a means of calling for help.”